Revaluation: winners & losers
Council tax bands were set on 1991 values (2003 in Wales) and never revalued in England — so they bear less and less relation to what homes are worth today. This is an illustrative, directional model of which way each area’s typical home would move if bands were re-cut on today’s values, holding the national band proportions. It’s a model of relative movement, not a forecast of bills — and an “up” area is never owed money.
If council tax bands were re-cut on today's home values (they're frozen at 1991), about 53 areas would tend to move down and 93 up. Illustrative only — find your area.
Would tend to move down
Banded high for today's value
Would tend to move up
Banded low for today's value
How this is modelled (and what it isn't)
ILLUSTRATIVE / DIRECTIONAL MODEL — NOT A FORECAST OF BILLS. Shows which way an area’s TYPICAL (median) home would likely move if bands were re-cut on today’s values, holding the current national band proportions (revenue-neutral, same band count). Real revaluation depends on policy choices not modelled here. "down" = currently banded high for its value (would tend to move down — a "winner"); "up" = banded low for its value (a "loser"). Per-home outcomes vary; this never predicts an individual bill or refund, and never implies an "up" area is owed money.
- Revenue-neutral: the revalued bands hold the SAME national proportions as the current distribution (England A–H, Wales A–I), cut separately per country.
- Same band count and structure as today; no new bands or ratio changes.
- Each LA represented by its single median home value (HM Land Registry), property-weighted by dwelling count — a coarse proxy for the LA's whole stock.
- Direction compares the LA's CURRENT median-property band (50th-pct of its present stock) to the modelled revalued band — median-to-median, so it is balanced (mode-to-revalued would skew "up" everywhere). Magnitude is in whole band steps. modeBand is retained for reference only.
- England and Wales modelled independently (separate band systems; Wales last revalued 2003, revalues again 2028).
A directional model, not a prediction
The defensible core is simple: an area whose homes are banded high relative to today’s values would tend to move down on a value-based reset (a “winner”); banded low relative to value → up (a “loser”). We rank areas by today’s median home value, cut that ranking to hold the same band proportions as now (revenue-neutral), and compare each area’s typical home to where it sits today. Actual revaluation depends on policy choices — band count, ratios, whether it’s revenue-neutral — that no model can pre-empt. Treat this as directional context, never a per-home bill or refund. A wrong band is a separate question the free address check answers.
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Sources: HM Land Registry median home values + Valuation Office band distribution, OGL v3.0. Illustrative model across 311 authorities. Not a forecast.
The data behind this tool
An illustrative model (not a forecast): if all 311 authorities’ bands were re-cut on today’s values, roughly 53 would shift down a band, 93 up, and 165 hold.
- South Ribble: C → A (down 2).
- Wyre: C → A (down 2).
- Hackney: C → G (up 4).
| Movement | Authorities |
|---|---|
| Move down a band | 53 |
| No change | 165 |
| Move up a band | 93 |
Source: Illustrative BandCheck model over VOA + Land Registry aggregates (Open Government Licence v3.0) — directional, not a forecast.